Assessing flood hazard changes using climate model forcing

Abstract. A modelling framework for using regional climate projections to assess flooding hazard has been developed and applied the Gwydir River (catchment 26 600 km2 floodplain 8100 km2), NSW, Australia. The model uses NSW ACT Regional Climate Modelling version 1.5 combined with computationally efficient hydrologic hydraulic models. Although it required management high-performance computing resources, successfully processed 18 into flood projections. Specifically, a six-member set of combinations simulating historical period (1951–2005) future (2006–2100) under two global emission pathways (RCP4.5 RP8.5) were used predict depth speed. In total, 1470 continuous years simulated at hourly time steps. These (depth speed) analysed changes scenarios by estimating in annual probability occurrence range classes. ensemble indicates that Valley will decrease short, medium long term. There are also cases within ensemble, which includes increases all non-safe classifications while decreasing safe classification.